One line
The last brief’s $80,000 was lost during the meeting week, then taken back after the decision. Taking it back is not the end of the sentence. On 21 September Bitcoin’s daily high was $87,396 and the close $86,620. On 24 September the low was $82,875 and the close $84,410. Spot now is about $84,441. Price is still above the 3 September high of $82,300. $87,396 is not a held high.
On 16 September the FOMC voted 12–0 to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 25bp, to 3.75–4.00%. The statement said inflation remains elevated and that the action supports a timelier return to 2%. August CPI had printed the Friday before. The headline monthly pace sped up from 0.1% to 0.4%, and the 12-month rate was unchanged at 3.4%. The US 10-year tape closed 24 September at 5.16%. The dollar index is back through 101. Do not collapse this into one direction.
Snapshot: 18:01 KST on Friday 25 September 2026, 09:01 UTC. The US cash session was not open yet. Korea’s cash market is closed 24–25 September for Chuseok. The last Korean session was Wednesday 23 September. It reopens Monday 28 September. Bitcoin, the dollar, and gold are same-day spot. US equities and the 10-year are the 24 September close. Korean equities and the KOSPI are the 23 September close. The charts are NVDA, TSM, Hynix, and DXY on 4 hours, and BTC, the US 10-year, and the Japan 10-year on 12 hours.
Bitcoin
BTC is about $84,441. The 6 September brief was watching a renewed hold of $80,000 and the $82,300 high.
On Tuesday 15 September, the first day of the meeting, the low was $74,968 and the close $75,644. That session lost both the 4 September jobs low of $78,660 and $80,000. On Wednesday 16 September, decision day, the low was $75,065 and the close $76,206. The hike print did not extend that low.
The reclaim was Friday 18 September. High $81,400, close $80,884. $80,000 was back above. On Monday 21 September the high was $87,396 and the close $86,620. The 3 September high of $82,300 was cleared. It was not held as a new shelf at the high. On 23 September the low was $83,500 and the close $84,398. On 24 September the low was $82,875 and the close $84,410. The fade stopped just above the 3 September high.
| Level | |
|---|---|
| Resistance | $87,396 (21 September daily) |
| Pivot | around $84,400 (here) |
| Support | $82,875 (24 September low) · $82,300 (3 September high) · $80,000 |
| Lower | $74,968 (15 September low) |
BTC 12-hour: the pane high $87,385 is not held. The next line drawn under it is near $75,000. The daily spot high is $87,396.
Semiconductors — Nvidia is under 230, Hynix is above 1.69 million
Nvidia closed 4 September at $230.36, above the last brief’s $230. On 14 September the low was $208.93 and the close $210.96. $218 was lost that day. The 24 September close is $224.58. $218 is back. $230 is not.
TSMC closed 4 September at $428.91. On 22 September the high was $452.88 and the close $452.00. The 24 September close is $451.15. The last brief’s $435 was cleared, and price is still above it.
SK hynix has come back the other way. The 4 September close was 1,647,000 won, under 1.69 million. The 7 September close was 1,783,000 won. 1.69 million was reclaimed. The 22 September high was 1,935,000 won. The last cash close before the holiday, 23 September, was 1,862,000 won. That is above 1.69 million.
Samsung Electronics closed 23 September at 285,500 won, above the 4 September close of 255,500 won.
The KOSPI closed 23 September at 7,080.92, above the 4 September close of 6,687.21. The 18 August high of 7,216.62 has not returned. The 8 September intraday high of 7,171.52 was not a closing hold.
| Name | Line | Watch |
|---|---|---|
| NVDA | 4h last $226.27, under $230 | $230 and pane high $234.50 / the $210 line |
| TSM | 4h last $455.76, above $435 | hold $455 / the right-side $410 |
| 000660 | 4h rejected 2.00m, around 1.86m | clear 2.00m / lose the 1.70m line |
NVDA 4-hour: last $226.27. That is under $230 and under the pane high $234.50. The September selloff stopped above the $210 line.
TSM 4-hour: last $455.76, above $435. The shelf on the right of the pane is near $410.
Hynix 4-hour: price was turned back at the 2,000,000 line. It is around 1.86 million, above the 1,700,000 line. The cash close is 1,862,000 on 23 September.
Inflation, the FOMC, the dollar, yields
Fix the numbers first.
US CPI for August, released Friday 11 September. The CPI-U rose 0.4% seasonally adjusted. July was 0.1%. Over the 12 months before seasonal adjustment the all-items index rose 3.4%, the same as July. The index less food and energy rose 0.3% on the month and 2.4% on the year, after 2.5% over the prior 12 months. Gasoline rose 3.9% and accounted for more than one third of the monthly all-items increase. The energy index rose 2.1%. Shelter rose 0.3%.
On 3 September, Governor Waller said he would lean toward a hold if the next two weeks of data kept the disinflation going, and that he would consider a hike if August inflation came in hot. He said the call leaned more on August inflation than on the jobs report. That sentence was before CPI. CPI then showed a faster headline month. On 16 September the committee hiked, unanimously.
The FOMC statement was released at 2:00 p.m. Eastern on 16 September. 12–0. The target range rose 0.25 percentage point to 3.75–4.00%. Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace. Uncertainty remains elevated owing in part to geopolitical developments, and domestic spending has been resilient. Productivity growth is strong and capital investment is robust. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little. Inflation remains elevated. The action supports a timelier return to the 2% goal.
SEP medians for 2026. Real GDP 2.3%, from 2.2% in June. Unemployment 4.1%, from 4.3% in June. PCE inflation 3.7%, from 3.6% in June. Core PCE 3.4%, from 3.3% in June. The median participant’s appropriate federal funds rate is 4.1% at the end of this year and 4.1% next year. June’s year-end median was 3.8%. The midpoint of the new target range is 3.875%. A 4.1% median sits above that midpoint. Chair Warsh said he did not submit a projection of his own. Reading those medians, he said inflation risks are to the upside and labor risks are roughly balanced. This 3.7% is not an August PCE print. August personal income and outlays are scheduled for 30 September at 8:30 a.m. Eastern.
Then the tape.
The dollar index closed 4 September at 99.16. The last brief’s hold of 99.2 was already gone. On 9 September the low was 98.60 and the close 98.77. The August low of 98.56 was not broken. Decision day, 16 September, closed at 100.31. 100 was cleared that day. The 24 September close was 101.29. Spot now is about 101.11. 99.2 and 100 have been taken back.
The US 10-year is the same tape as the last brief. 4.78% on 4 September. 5.01% on decision day. 4.95% on 17 September, one session back under 5%. The 24 September close was 5.16%. Spot now is about 5.16%. The old watch above 4.75% is still open, and the yield is above 5%.
Gold was about $4,477 on 4 September. The 24 September close was $4,298. Spot now is about $4,326. It is below the 4 September print, on the same side of the tape as the higher dollar and the higher 10-year.
The Japan 10-year 12-hour pane high is 3.112%. That is through the 6 September brief’s pane high of 3.027%. The last print is just under that high, and it is above 3%. Do not read it as the same number as the US 10-year.
DXY 4-hour: price is above 101. On this pane the September low is 98.557 and the window high is 101.800.
US10Y 12-hour: pane high 5.225%. The 24 September tape close is 5.16%.
JP10Y 12-hour: the high is 3.112%. Price is pinned just under it, and above 3%.
Levels and sentiment
| Level now | Watch | |
|---|---|---|
| BTC | $84,441 · 12h high $87,385 | reclaim $87,385 / hold $82,300 / the 12h $75,000 line |
| Sentiment | F&G 71 · Greed | 16 Sep 51 Neutral → 22 Sep 78 Extreme Greed → today 71. The extreme on the $87k day did not stick |
| S&P 500 | 7,704.13 on 24 Sep | 4 Sep 7,718.60. Decision-day low 7,507.77, close 7,551.81. 21 Sep close 7,764.70 |
| Gold | about $4,326 | down from $4,477 on 4 Sep |
| KOSPI | 7,080.92 (23 Sep) | 7,217 not recovered. Closed 24–25 Sep |
Spot-ETF weekly totals stay blank in this note. As in the last brief, an empty collection is not evidence of zero inflow.
The S&P is about where it was on 4 September. The Bitcoin 12-hour high is not held, and spot is in the mid-$84,000s. The NVDA 4-hour last is $226, under $230. The TSM 4-hour last is near $456. Hynix was turned back at 2 million won. The dollar is above 101, and the US 10-year 12-hour high is 5.225%. It is not one line.
Scenarios — the story changes if this happens
Base
These are the levels on the captures. The BTC 12-hour high $87,385 was tagged and is not held. Spot is about $84,441, under that high and above the 3 September high $82,300. The line drawn under the September range on the 12-hour pane is near $75,000. The NVDA 4-hour last is $226.27, under $230 and under the pane high $234.50. The September selloff stopped above the $210 line. The TSM 4-hour last is $455.76, above $435. Hynix on the 4-hour was turned back at 2,000,000 won and is around 1.86 million, above the 1,700,000 line. DXY on the 4-hour is above 101. On that pane the September low is 98.557 and the window high is 101.800. The US 10-year 12-hour high is 5.225%, through 5%. The Japan 10-year 12-hour high is 3.112%, pinned above 3%. Korea’s cash market reopens on 28 September. August PCE is 30 September. The next FOMC meeting is 27–28 October.
Weight shifts up if
- BTC on the 12-hour reclaims and holds $87,385
- NVDA on the 4-hour clears $230 and tests $234.50
- TSM on the 4-hour holds the $455 area
- Hynix on the 4-hour clears 2,000,000 after the reopen
- the US 10-year 12-hour falls back under 5%, and DXY on the 4-hour loses 101 and then 100
- the Japan 10-year 12-hour loses 3%
Weight shifts down if
- BTC loses the spot shelves $82,875 and $82,300, and reaches the 12-hour $75,000 line
- NVDA on the 4-hour loses $218 again and then the $210 line
- TSM on the 4-hour loses $435 and tests the right-side $410 area
- Hynix on the 4-hour loses the 1,700,000 line
- DXY on the 4-hour holds above 101 and trades toward 101.80
- the US 10-year 12-hour holds above 5.225%, and the Japan 10-year 12-hour holds above 3.112%
A brief break of a low that is taken straight back is a shake that can return, not a finished move.
Short FAQ
Does a hike mean Bitcoin has to fall?
The decision-day close was above the first-day low. $87,000 opened after that. Spot is under that high and above the 3 September high. The hike and the price are not pointing the same way.
If it cleared $87,000, is the path up?
The 12-hour high $87,385 is not held. The next sentence is whether that high is reclaimed, whether spot holds $82,300, and whether the $75,000 line on the 12-hour pane opens.
Are the semiconductors fine?
The TSM 4-hour last is $455.76, above $435. Hynix was turned back at 2 million won and is above 1.70 million. The NVDA 4-hour last is $226.27, under $230. It is not one line. Korean closes stop at 23 September.
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